? זאָג, פון אוקראינע װאס זיינט איר אװעק —

[sovay]

Quite apart from events on the world stage, every day this week has contained some additional stressor, of which the latest example was spatch needing to spend the day at the ER for what turned out to be diverticulitis. He is home now with antibiotics and enjoying some well-deserved soup. My ability to do very much this week beyond work has been somewhat frustrated. Someday, statistically, someone I care for or even just know socially will catch a break and it will be awesome.

In terms of ongoing resources for Ukaine, Razom seems to have the bases covered. I found myself saying elsenet that I don't think I'm old enough to blame it on the failure of historical memory, but I keep catching takes from people who seem to have forgotten that the Yugoslav Wars—Bosnia, Croatia, Kosovo—even happened and it is very strange. I understand the significance of the eight-decade mark since one stable sovereign nation in Europe invaded another. But it's not as though we haven't seen sieges and airstrikes in places that didn't look sufficiently (there are not enough scare quotes in the world) foreign as to feel safely distant since then.

Courtesy of a friend who is not on DW: mir zaynen do, af Ukraynish.

Comments

[sovay]

If Russia struggles to attack Ukraine after months of preparation then their general staff is going to recognise the impossibility of a general attack on NATO along the whole inter-bloc border, even if Putin doesn't.

What result does this produce?

(I am not ignoring the rest of the information contained in your comment; much of my reaction to it is filed under the way I have been going around astonished by the international support for Ukraine. Not on the ground, by governments. After the Crimea in 2014, I expected nothing. I certainly didn't expect the ruble to plummet toward toilet paper and Turkey to close the straits.)

[edit] This thread made me think of you.

[davidgillon]

If Putin asks his military to do something they know is impossible to win, and launch a conventional attack against NATO, then things become very scarily interesting. They have three options: try to do what he demands, try to change what he demands, or try to replace him.

The first is incredibly dangerous, because it risks WWIII and escalating into a strategic nuclear exchange because the conventional attack will fail. Russian officers are as capable of recognising this as anyone, and commanders in the Strategic Rocket Forces have shown that they are willing to hesitate of their own initiative when faced with an apparent nuclear threat, so blind obedience isn't a given.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norwegian_rocket_incident
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1983_Soviet_nuclear_false_alarm_incident

Trying to change his demands depends on how much access the military have at court, and the Defence Minister, Sergei Shoigu is a Putin insider rather than an military figure, so I'm not sure how much chance it has in the court of yes-men he's surrounded himself with.

Trying to replace Putin is almost as scary as the first scenario, because it could end up in a civil war in a nuclear armed state. Which probably means Putin would have to be killed as part of the plot rather than deposed because they can't afford to have him trying to rally support from other elements of the military. I think we have to look at the way he's systematically eliminated opposition leaders as indicating this scenario makes him lose sleep at night. The key question becomes just how loyal is the military? Particularly the commanders of the Tamanskaya Guards Division (effectively the Russian Praetorian Guard, and which played a significant role in the 1991 coup attempt and the 1993 White House crisis), and the airborne forces. If discontent spreads to the people, then that could provide the pretext for action, but I have no idea who might emerge as a leader.

And those three options are why I think it's important NATO and the EU demonstrate as resolute a reaction as possible to what's happening now, so that even if Putin does win in the Ukraine he hesitates to take on NATO directly.