Ship me somewheres east of Suez

[sovay]

My life remains a double-tracked medical cavalcade, but selkie has just informed me of the latest development in the Suez: "theyre actually doing it! ever given has been there so long that theyre actually going around the cape of good hope like 1700s scurvy patients oh my god."

I can only imagine how nervous the Panama Canal must be feeling right now. I just checked and thank God the dredging of Boston Harbor is proceeding on schedule. If we Storrowed a container ship, we'd never live it down.

P.S. The breeze coming through the window smells like the ocean; there was a gyre of seagulls visible above the roofs in the afternoon. It is coincidental but pleasant, considering all the chanteys I now have stuck in my head.

Comments

[thedarlingone]

Well, as I understand it, the Panama Canal doesn't have this particular risk because they actually use tugs to bring the ships through instead of trying to have you cruise through under your own steam like the Suez.

(At least that's how it used to be, and I've seen nothing recent to indicate that that's changed. The Suez being only accessible to steamers and not sailing ships was a big part of the final death of sail as a cargo shipping method in the early 20th century, is why I happen to know this relevant bit of trivia; I had a major special interest in clipper ships once upon a time. I... may possibly be feeling a bit smug that this particular bureaucratic choice has finally come back to bite someone in the ass, which is probably very wrong of me but there you have it.)

I've been seeing a lot of different estimates of how long it would take rerouted shipping traffic to actually reach the Cape, ranging anywhere from days to months (I am really fucking dubious of that one). I know your standard cargo steamer makes about 8-12 knots, but I haven't yet figured out how to measure the distance to be covered, Google Maps not having a handy sailing route function as far as I'm aware.

Edit: Okay, it looks like a modern container ship can hypothetically make up to 25 knots, but they've usually been going at 12-14 knots in recent years to save on fuel prices. Fascinating. I wonder if they can crank back up to 25 without having to be refitted, since it sounds like they had to be refitted to get down to the 12 knots.

I assume a ship that was diverted around the Cape to avoid the traffic jam would want to go as fast as possible, if they had enough fuel aboard to do so, and I'm seeing the big news services quote a minimum 7-10 day timeframe for the detour. So a ship that had turned around and headed for the Cape as soon as the canal was blocked might be reaching there shortly, but I really don't see any modern shipping company making that call within the first couple days when people kept saying the ship was partially refloated and whatnot. It's only in the past couple days with the "maybe weeks" quote floating around that I suspect anyone in that sort of decision making position would start to look seriously at doubling the Cape as an alternative.

And honestly, given that mankind are more disposed to suffer while evils are sufferable than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed, I don't think many ships are actually going to divert unless we get a really solid timeframe. Any company that sent their ship down the coast right before the canal gets unblocked would feel very stupid and whoever made the decision would probably be fired. I suspect they'll mostly stand by the sunk cost fallacy and keep waiting.

[sovay]

I... may possibly be feeling a bit smug that this particular bureaucratic choice has finally come back to bite someone in the ass, which is probably very wrong of me but there you have it.

No, as a late-breaking ass-bite, it's hilarious. Does it mean you would like to feel smug about the Suez using tugs to clear the shipjam behind Ever Given?

I've been seeing a lot of different estimates of how long it would take rerouted shipping traffic to actually reach the Cape, ranging anywhere from days to months (I am really fucking dubious of that one).

I am also dubious of months, but if you get some hard numbers, please let me know. I am genuinely curious.

[edit] I suspect they'll mostly stand by the sunk cost fallacy and keep waiting.

Thank you for the numbers. Now I'm trying to figure out what prices are going to rise on first, if they haven't already.

[edit edit] The re-routing seems to be happening, though:

"Already, seven giant carriers of liquefied natural gas appear to have decided to change course away from the canal, according to Kpler.

"One of these ships, chartered by Royal Dutch Shell, had picked up a cargo of gas at Sabine Pass in Texas and was heading toward the canal when it made a sharp turn in the Atlantic Ocean toward Africa. Another, operated by Qatargas, a state energy company, and loaded at Ras Laffan, the Qatar energy hub, was headed for Suez but then veered away toward the Cape of Good Hope before reaching the Red Sea.

"Container ships are also changing their plans. HMM, a South Korean shipping company, ordered one of its vessels that was headed to Asia from Britain via the canal to go around Africa instead, according to NOH Ji-hwan, a spokesman for the company."

[thedarlingone]

Oh neat! I am very entertained by this whole situation. It's so much less stressful an entry on the bingo card of Things Nobody Expected than last March with the pandemic.

[legionseagle]

It adds approx two weeks extra onto a journey to go via the Cape of Good Hope as opposed to Suez (everyone had to do it during the eight years Suez was blocked as a result of the aftermath of the 6 Day War, which gave rise to a shedload of lawsuits) but the key point about the divert/not divert choice is that boats go through Suez in convoy and they alternate north bound/south bound and it takes a good while to get a slot, so if you're starting now from say Rotterdam you have to factor in how many people are ahead of you waiting for their slot, too.

Also, it makes a real difference whether you are on a time charter or a voyage charterparty, because of how delays will get calculated in terms of your hire costs for the boat.

[sovay]

Also, it makes a real difference whether you are on a time charter or a voyage charterparty, because of how delays will get calculated in terms of your hire costs for the boat.

I would like you and thedarlingone to know how unironically happy it makes me that I post a tweet because it entertained me on an otherwise exhausting day and people turn up in my comments with logistics.

(I appreciate also the reminder of the Six-Day War and would say something about the silver lining here being an absence of the need for mine sweeping, but I don't want to jinx it.)

[legionseagle]

I did a special subject on International Trade (Law) in my degree in 1983, and the repercussions of the Six-Day War and its impact on the Suez Canal were still making their ways through the law-courts.

[sovay]

I did a special subject on International Trade (Law) in my degree in 1983, and the repercussions of the Six-Day War and its impact on the Suez Canal were still making their ways through the law-courts.

So what are you expecting from this obstruction?

[legionseagle]

Very large top up payments to their pension plans from lawyers engaged in the shipping industry. It's going to run like The Mousetrap.

The first and most important issue is going to be establishing how the skipper came to fall down the companionway boat ended up in both banks simultaneously in the first place. There's a wonderful article Sailors talk about hydrodynamics the way CEOs talk about macroeconomics: they either treat it with mystical reverence, or they claim to understand it and are wrong. delving into the physics of it.

Then there's going to be all sorts of fallouts between the owners, the charterers and the insurers. Oh, and the salvage issue, of course.

And that's before everyone else sticks their three pennorth in.



(Incidentally, the attached post I did a couple of weeks ago manages to combine kdrama and shipping law, and it has some background on shipping rates.)

[movingfinger]

Is there any chance that "some ships are too big for the Suez" is going to be fallout from this?

[sovay]

Is there any chance that "some ships are too big for the Suez" is going to be fallout from this?

There is a designation for that, although it doesn't appear to apply to container ships. That said, it looks as though Ever Given exceeded a couple of its parameters and I'm sure people who know more about naval architecture than me have already taken up this point. [edit] Yep.

[asakiyume]

I love that sovay's friends know things like this--it's wonderful.

[choco_frosh]

Well, as I understand it, the Panama Canal doesn't have this particular risk
Didn't know that about the Panama Canal! I was also going to say that it's also now doubled at all the locks (so even if the new locks were OOC, the smaller ships could still get through); but then it occurred to me that that wouldn't help if a ship somehow went sideways in the Culebra Cut...